In recent weeks, the conflict that began with US and Israeli strikes on Iran has escalated into a regional war with the active participation of the Persian Gulf countries. Today, these are not isolated incidents, but a large-scale military and political escalation with far-reaching consequences.

Iran continues a series of missile and drone attacks on Gulf countries, including the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia. These attacks involve hundreds of drones, dozens of missile carriers, and direct threats to energy infrastructure and vital facilities, including those with a US and allied presence.

Gulf countries are responding with sophisticated and highly effective air defense systems, intercepting massive waves of threats, but debris and isolated successful hits continue to cause casualties and damage to civilian infrastructure. This is eroding the region's former image as a "safe zone of stability" and placing direct pressure on economic, social, and diplomatic institutions. At the same time, international politics is undergoing a profound strategic rethink: Saudi Arabia has publicly warned Iran of serious consequences if its aggression continues, and regional states are strengthening their defense and diplomatic measures.

One key element of this tension has become the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime corridor through which nearly a fifth of the world's oil and a significant portion of its LNG passes. Recent weeks have seen shipping through the strait virtually halted: threats of attacks on shipping, the deployment of naval mines, and Iran's intense military maneuvers have made transit extremely dangerous. Many shipping companies are avoiding the strait, insurance companies have partially withdrawn their coverage, and the region's largest oil exporters are being forced to reduce production. This is already having an impact on global energy markets, driving up oil prices and causing a chain reaction in the global economy, from rising fuel costs to rising food prices.

CASPIA presents an interview with Salem Alketbi, UAE-based political analyst, strategic researcher, and former Federal National Council candidate specializing in Middle East geopolitics, international security, and strategic communication.

-What is your assessment of Iran’s recent missile and drone attacks on multiple Gulf Arab states?

-The missile and drone attacks represent a clear violation of state sovereignty and international law. Regardless of stated justifications, extending military actions into the territory of sovereign Gulf states increases regional instability and exposes civilian populations and critical infrastructure to unacceptable risk. Gulf countries have responded with restraint and responsibility, drawing on decades of institutional experience in crisis management while reaffirming that the protection of sovereignty and civilian safety remains non-negotiable.

- How do you interpret the targeting of U.S. and allied military bases located in Arab countries by Iran?

- Any strike against facilities located within a sovereign Arab state constitutes an attack on that state itself. Defense partnerships and hosting arrangements are sovereign decisions undertaken within clear legal frameworks. They do not grant any external actor the right to treat Gulf territories as arenas for proxy confrontation. Gulf governments have consistently balanced deterrence with de-escalation, ensuring that national security remains protected without unnecessary escalation.

- What do these attacks reveal about Iran’s strategic objectives in the wider Middle East conflict?

-The attacks suggest an attempt to expand the scope of confrontation by distributing the cost of conflict across neighboring states. Such actions risk undermining regional confidence-building efforts and increase the danger of miscalculation. Gulf states remain committed to safeguarding their national interests while advocating for de-escalation and diplomatic solutions.

- How have GCC countries responded to being directly targeted, and what are the implications for regional unity?

- GCC member states have demonstrated coordinated diplomatic messaging and reinforced security preparedness. The unified response underscores collective commitment to sovereignty and stability. Historically, shared challenges have strengthened regional coordination, and the present circumstances are reinforcing institutional solidarity rather than fragmenting it.

- What risks do the current hostilities pose for civilian populations in Arab states such as the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain? How might these developments affect the security posture of Arab nations that host foreign military forces?

-The primary concern is the potential spillover impact on civilian areas, infrastructure, airspace, and essential services. Gulf governments have elevated defensive readiness and civil protection measures to mitigate risks. Hosting foreign military forces remains a sovereign decision embedded within long-standing defense arrangements. These states possess the institutional and operational experience to manage such partnerships without compromising domestic stability.

- Do you expect Arab states to take more active military or diplomatic roles in response to continued Iranian aggression?

-Arab states are likely to prioritize diplomatic channels while maintaining credible defensive deterrence. Gulf countries possess advanced military capabilities, resilient economies, and active diplomatic networks. Their objective remains clear: defend sovereignty, prevent escalation, and preserve regional stability.

- How are Iranian attacks and the wider conflict being perceived in Arab public opinion and media across the region?

-Public discourse largely reflects concern about regional stability and rejection of transforming Gulf territories into theaters of external confrontation. There is broad support for firm yet measured responses that prioritize civilian protection and economic continuity.

- What are the potential economic and security consequences for the Gulf region if this escalation continues?

-Prolonged escalation could increase risk premiums, disrupt aviation and maritime routes, and create volatility in financial markets. However, Gulf economies have repeatedly demonstrated resilience during regional crises, supported by strong fiscal positions, diversified infrastructure, and adaptive policy frameworks.

- How can Arab nations balance their relationships with Western powers and their own regional security interests amidst this crisis?

-Balance is achieved through sovereign decision-making rooted in national interest. Strategic partnerships with Western powers coexist with regional diplomacy and independent policy choices. The guiding principle remains the same: safeguard national security, uphold sovereignty, and contribute to regional stability through responsible engagement.