Orkhan Yolchuyev, Director of the CASPIA Analytical Center, appeared on ARB TV to comment on the latest developments in the domestic and foreign policy of Iran and the situation around the Middle East. 

According to him, the growing internal contradictions in Iran are no longer limited to reputational concerns but are increasingly raising fundamental questions about the country’s future. “These internal tensions are effectively pushing Iran into a systemic crisis,” he stated.

Yolchuyev emphasized that the situation in Iran is unfolding against the backdrop of broader instability in the global economy. In particular, he pointed to disruptions in key sectors such as oil and the chemical industry, noting that their consequences are likely to become even more visible in the near future.

He also highlighted what he described as a strategic objective of the United States—to deepen internal social divisions within Iran. “In many ways, Iran is already operating under conditions of blockade,” he noted, stressing the critical importance of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Strait remains a vital artery for Iran’s economy, with up to 90% of its oil exports passing through it. At the same time, Yolchuyev pointed out that a significant portion of Iran’s oil sector is closely linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which complicates its ability to operate freely under sanctions pressure.

The analyst further underlined the absence of a fully centralized decision-making system within Iran. According to him, competing political factions—including more radical elements—are shaping policy directions. “Many individuals within these structures have military backgrounds from the Iran–Iraq war, and for them, confrontation is a familiar framework,” he explained.

At the same time, Yolchuyev noted that there are ongoing attempts to reach certain understandings, including through platforms involving Pakistan, which could serve the interests of both the United States and more technocratic circles within Iran.

Despite what may appear as a short-term sense of strategic advantage in Tehran, Yolchuyev warned that any disruption or blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would have severe consequences for Iran’s own economy.

“Iran is currently at a critical juncture where internal divisions, external pressure, and geo-economic risks intersect, creating a highly complex and unstable situation,” he concluded.