The investment package comprising 23 documents with a total value of $10.8 billion, presented as part of AIIF 2026, creates a significant economic foundation for Azerbaijan. However, it is still too early to assess its direct impact on GDP, employment and production.

This was stated by Orkhan Yolchuyev, Director of the CASPIA Analytical Center to https://minval.az/news/124555126 .

According to him, for the scale of Azerbaijan’s economy, the announced amount is substantial and is equivalent to approximately 14% of the country’s GDP last year. Compared with last year’s volume of fixed capital investment, it amounts to roughly 87% of the annual figure. At the same time, the expert emphasized that the value of the signed documents should not be directly equated with the volume of investment that will actually flow into the economy.

“At this stage, we are primarily talking about the scale of intentions and the investment potential. Each project has its own financing structure, timeline and implementation stages. Therefore, the measurable effect will emerge as financing is secured, construction work begins, equipment orders are placed and new capacities reach their designed operating levels. These are the stages that show whether an investment agreement is turning into real production and exports,” Yolchuyev said.

He added that the projects presented at the forum differ significantly both in scale and in their level of readiness. They include major energy initiatives, such as the further development of the Absheron gas condensate field, as well as agreements that are still at an earlier stage.

According to the expert, it is therefore more accurate at this point to speak of the formation of a substantial investment pipeline, whose impact on the economy will materialize gradually. As an example, he cited Masdar’s 230 MW Garadagh Solar Power Plant, which went through the full cycle from the signing of agreements and the establishment of electricity sales arrangements to construction and commissioning in 2023.

“For international capital, such examples are particularly important because they demonstrate that an investment agreement in Azerbaijan can complete the entire cycle — from the signing of documents to a fully operational facility,” Yolchuyev said.

In his assessment, the largest volumes of capital are likely to be concentrated in the energy and infrastructure sectors. At the same time, industry, agricultural processing and logistics may generate a more visible impact on employment, local suppliers and the development of small and medium-sized businesses.

Yolchuyev believes that when evaluating investments, it is important to look not only at the amount of capital invested, but also at the number of economic linkages created around each project. As an example, he pointed to Carlsberg’s cooperation with local barley producers, which began with the cultivation of raw materials in Azerbaijan and later developed into a processing facility project in Imishli.

According to him, such a model allows the economic effect to be distributed across the entire production chain: farmers gain stable demand, processors receive orders, manufacturers gain access to locally sourced raw materials, while export potential may also emerge over time. In the expert’s view, a similar approach can be applied in pharmaceuticals, food production, the manufacturing of components for the energy sector and other industries.

Yolchuyev also paid particular attention to the development of Azerbaijan’s transport and logistics potential. In his view, the Middle Corridor should be regarded not only as a transit route, but also as a platform for locating manufacturing, processing and service facilities.

“Growth in cargo traffic by itself generates revenue for transport operators and ports, but much greater value added is created when assembly, processing, packaging, certification, repair and equipment servicing develop along the route. The task is not simply to move cargo through Azerbaijan, but to ensure that part of the goods is processed or assembled within the country,” the expert noted.

He considers projects that can connect demand from Central Asia, Azerbaijan’s manufacturing capabilities and the markets of Türkiye and Europe to be particularly promising. If the buyer is identified in advance and the entire supply chain is properly calculated, the investment model becomes significantly more convincing.

Among the promising areas for further capital inflows, Yolchuyev also highlighted renewable energy, digital infrastructure, data centers, logistics and the mining sector.

According to him, in renewable energy, investors will increasingly look not only at the construction of generation facilities, but also at the development of grid infrastructure, energy storage systems and clear mechanisms for electricity sales. For data centers, the key factors are the cost and reliability of power supply, grid connectivity, the quality of telecommunications infrastructure and the availability of major customers. In the mining sector, high-quality geological data, transparent licensing procedures and clear project economics will play a central role.

Yolchuyev also stressed that Azerbaijan already has the necessary infrastructure base for the further development of a logistics and manufacturing hub, including the Alat Port, the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway, the Caspian merchant fleet and other transport assets.

According to him, infrastructure alone is not enough unless a fully developed economic ecosystem is created around it.

“It is necessary to develop processing, assembly, packaging, certification, equipment servicing and inventory management. In that case, the Middle Corridor can function not only as a transport route, but also as a chain of investment platforms where a much larger share of value added remains in Azerbaijan,” Yolchuyev concluded.