The escalation between Iran and Israel was entirely foreseeable. Since last summer, the sides have been preparing for military confrontation, said Orkhan Yolchuyev, Director of CASPIA, speaking on CBC television.

“The United States has been building up forces over recent months. Two aircraft carriers were deployed in the Persian Gulf, each capable of carrying up to 90 fighter jets. Forces of this scale cannot be kept on standby for weeks without purpose. The political and military costs will be extremely high,” Yolchuyev noted.

He emphasized that one of the underlying causes of the current escalation can be traced back to the twelve-day war last summer, when Israel and the United States failed to achieve their military objectives.

“First and foremost, this was due to insufficient preparedness of the US Navy. The deployment of naval aviation, stockpiling, logistics, and base organization were not adequately coordinated. Moreover, Iran’s missile program was not dismantled. Since last summer, Iran has significantly expanded its missile capabilities, and we are now seeing that a substantial portion of these missiles are reaching Israeli territory and other countries in the Persian Gulf,” he said.

The expert also noted that widespread protests in Iran, economic collapse, and harsh repression have undermined the regime’s legitimacy. This internal vulnerability, combined with external military pressure, makes elements of a classical strategy aimed at weakening the regime and triggering internal fragmentation increasingly evident.

According to him, in the event of a prolonged conflict, the region could be plunged into chaos.

“Historical precedents show that once a war begins and drags on, outcomes are determined by inertia rather than intentions,” Yolchuyev stated.

He also warned that risks are growing due to the potential disruption of energy supply chains.

“Approximately one fifth of global oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz. A significant share of liquefied natural gas flows also depends on this route. In the event of a collapse, oil prices would rise sharply, and the global economy would face serious inflationary risks,” Orkhan Yolchuyev said.

The full version of the interview is available at the following link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7NNxh0NbXB8