Orkhan Yolchuev, Director of the CASPIA Analytical Center and analyst, said in an interview with ARB24 TV that a new architecture of regional interaction is currently taking shape in the South Caucasus, with the normalization process between Azerbaijan and Armenia becoming one of its key elements.

According to him, the very fact that states which had been at war for a prolonged period have moved toward normalization within a relatively short time is a rather rare phenomenon in the geography of Eurasia and, in particular, among the countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

In this context, Orkhan Yolchuev believes that key issues on the regional agenda will include the demarcation and delimitation of the border, the implementation of the TRIPP project, and the development of transport infrastructure. In particular, road and railway infrastructure on the Azerbaijani section of the Zangezur Corridor is already at the final stage of construction.

At the same time, the normalization process is already taking on practical forms. According to the expert, over the past year Azerbaijan supplied 20,000 tons of petroleum products to Armenia, while 60,000 tons of transit cargo passed through Azerbaijani territory toward Armenia. In his view, this demonstrates that the process of establishing ties between the two countries is already underway in practice, regardless of whether a final peace agreement has been concluded.

Yolchuev believes that further development of these ties is of fundamental importance for shaping a new architecture of cooperation in the South Caucasus. The deepening of economic, transport and other practical contacts can become one of the foundational elements of this emerging regional system.

Speaking about Azerbaijan’s priorities in its engagement with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Orkhan Yolchuev identified three main areas.

The first is transport and logistics, above all the diversification of transport and logistics routes and projects. According to him, major transport hubs and new routes are currently emerging across the SCO space. First and foremost, this concerns the Middle Corridor, as well as the development of a new railway route connecting China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. In effect, the expert believes, we are witnessing the emergence of a new branch of the Middle Corridor.

What is particularly important is that all these projects ultimately pass through Azerbaijan. In this sense, Azerbaijan can be viewed as the western gateway to the geography of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization — a connecting link between its core space, represented by Central Asia and China, and the European market.

For this reason, Yolchuev estimates that Azerbaijan’s importance for the organization will continue to grow. The long-standing participation of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in SCO events, as well as his speeches at the organization’s platforms, also demonstrate Azerbaijan’s growing political and economic role.

The second important area is access to the markets of Central Asia and China. In the expert’s view, there is significant potential for further development of economic ties in this area.

The third area he identified is cooperation in combating terrorism and separatism. In his assessment, Azerbaijan can also play a significant role in advancing these priorities of the organization.

Orkhan Yolchuev also addressed contacts between Armenia and India and their significance for the implementation of transport projects in the region. In his view, India has sought in recent years to strengthen its influence in the South Caucasus and regards Armenia as one of the instruments for expanding its presence in the region. At the same time, India and Armenia have already developed substantial cooperation in the defense industry, within which relevant agreements and memoranda have been concluded.

However, the current regional reality, according to the expert, creates entirely new opportunities for India. Today, the South Caucasus is in the process of developing a new system of regional cooperation, largely linked to large-scale infrastructure projects being implemented by Azerbaijan.

The Zangezur corridor occupies a particularly important place in this emerging system. As Yolchuev points out, its significance extends far beyond being exclusively an east-west transport route. The corridor could potentially also become part of the North-South Corridor. This is particularly important for India, as the country has long been interested in developing the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). In 2001, Russia, Iran and India reached an agreement on this initiative, and since then New Delhi has consistently demonstrated an interest in expanding connectivity along this route.

If the prospect of integrating the Zangezur Corridor into the North-South system is taken into account, new opportunities emerge for India to develop transport and economic ties. Therefore, the expert believes that in the coming years we may see more substantial cooperation between India and both Armenia and Azerbaijan.

At the same time, Yolchuev notes that until now India has demonstrated a relatively firm position on a number of issues. However, the new regional reality objectively requires a shift from a logic of confrontation toward cooperation.

“The new reality requires cooperation, and we ourselves have created this reality. Today, we are to a large extent the ones shaping the agenda of the South Caucasus,” he noted.

In a broader context, the expert also draws attention to the very nature of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Its membership includes states whose national interests do not always coincide. Relations between India and Pakistan, as well as between India and China, are examples of this.

However, according to Yolchuev, this is precisely one of the organization’s defining features: its purpose is to create a space for dialogue even among states whose interests diverge substantially.

In this sense, the new realities shaped by Azerbaijan in the South Caucasus may have implications far beyond relations between individual countries of the region. They create conditions for the involvement of a broader range of states in the emerging system of cooperation and, in doing so, may contribute to the formation of a new regional architecture.

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1DkzwCBDBQ/?mibextid=wwXIfr