Political analyst and director of the CASPIA Analytical Center, Orkhan Yolchuyev, shared his assessment of the current military-political situation in Iran and possible scenarios for the development of the conflict in an interview with ARB TV.

According to him, at this stage he does not consider the launch of a large-scale ground operation likely, as the necessary conditions for such a move have not yet been formed. However, the expert does not rule out that the situation may develop similarly to the events of the first year of the Russia–Ukraine war, when Russian forces took control of Snake Island (Zmiinyi Island), but were later forced to withdraw under heavy strikes from the Ukrainian army. In Yolchuyev’s view, a similar scenario could unfold in the area of Kharg Island.

The expert notes that despite the ongoing negotiation process, the situation is not improving and is instead evolving according to the worst-case scenario. Moreover, he considers the likelihood of Gulf countries becoming involved in the conflict to be quite high, with their participation most likely taking the form of air operations. This, in turn, would lead to an expansion of the front line.

According to the analyst, Israel is also interested in the involvement of Gulf states, as its resources are not unlimited and are gradually being depleted. At the same time, Yolchuyev believes that Donald Trump is not interested in a prolonged conflict and requires allies, which will likely be the countries of the region.

The expert emphasizes that despite loud statements, what is actually being observed is an expansion of the conflict zone. The United States is increasing its military presence in the region, which, in his assessment, indicates preparations for at least several months of active hostilities.

In Yolchuyev’s opinion, the key objective remains a change of power in Iran to a more predictable leadership willing to make favorable decisions. However, neither the United States nor Israel has so far been able to achieve this outcome. Furthermore, the development of the conflict has already affected international processes—specifically, a meeting between Trump and the Chinese leader was postponed, as Washington seeks to approach negotiations from a stronger position.

Speaking about potential support for Iran, the analyst notes that its main partners remain Russia and China. At the same time, he believes that Russia may provide certain technical assistance, including the transfer of experience or technologies, although he considers the direct provision of intelligence information unlikely.

Yolchuyev also draws attention to the risks facing Iran: a prolonged conflict could lead to internal destabilization and even fragmentation of the country. Within the state, he notes, the role of security structures is increasing, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Separately, the expert addresses Europe’s position. He notes that the United Kingdom demonstrates support for the United States, while Germany and Spain take a more restrained stance. At the same time, the conflict has an indirect but significant impact on Europe, primarily through rising oil prices, which increases the dependence of European economies on energy resources.

In addition, Yolchuyev highlights the serious strain on the West’s military-industrial resources. For example, the intensity of the use of missile systems such as Patriot already exceeds their annual production volumes, creating additional risks for supporting other areas, including Ukraine.

In conclusion, the expert states that neither side is currently interested in a real compromise. According to him, the demands of the parties are essentially ultimatum-like and amount to expecting the opponent’s capitulation. Under these conditions, only temporary pauses in hostilities are possible, but not a sustainable peace agreement.