Against the backdrop of intensifying competition between Russia, China, and Turkey for influence in Eurasia, the South Caucasus is increasingly viewed as one of the most sensitive and strategically significant regions of the post-Soviet space. It is here that the interests of major powers intersect, new transport and energy routes are taking shape, and models of foreign policy autonomy for small and medium-sized states are being tested.

In recent years, the region has found itself at the center of several parallel processes: the reassessment of the role of overland trade routes amid the global transformation of supply chains, the intensification of energy cooperation between Azerbaijan and the European Union following the crisis in the European energy market, and the gradual rapprochement between the South Caucasus states and the countries of Central Asia within emerging frameworks of cooperation. Against this background, particular attention has been drawn to the concept of the Middle Corridor, which is increasingly discussed as an alternative route between Asia and Europe, although its economic sustainability and scalability continue to generate debate among experts.

At the same time, the South Caucasus remains a region marked by unresolved conflicts, complex domestic political dynamics, and a high degree of external influence. This creates a distinctive model of regional balance in which states are compelled to combine multivector diplomacy, pragmatic alliance-building, and efforts to preserve strategic autonomy. In these circumstances, Azerbaijan is increasingly regarded as one of the most active players, seeking not only to adapt to changes in the international environment, but also to shape elements of it through its energy, transport, and diplomatic agenda.

CASPIA presents an interview with Dimitar Bechev, Senior Fellow at Carnegie Europe, Director of the Dahrendorf Programme at St Antony’s College, University of Oxford, and author of influential studies on the geopolitics of Europe, Russia, China, and Turkey, as well as the book The Scramble for Europe: Russia, China and Turkey Challenging Regional Order.

— Mr. Bechev, in your new book you analyze the competition between Russia, China, and Turkey for influence in Europe and neighboring regions. What place does the South Caucasus — and Azerbaijan in particular — occupy in this changing geopolitical configuration today?

— The South Caucasus is a region in its own right. It is subject to external influences — from Russia, Turkey, the United States, the EU, Iran, and China — yet the three states of the region pursue policies shaped primarily by their own choices and preferences rather than by outside pressure. Regional and even domestic political processes follow their own logic. Local states and elites possess agency. In some cases, they seek to avoid the negative consequences of great power rivalry and the spillover of conflicts — for example, by maintaining neutrality in the confrontation between Russia and the West. In other cases, they use leverage over external partners; Azerbaijan, for instance, has for many years managed to exert influence on both Turkey and Russia.

— Amid the transformation of global supply chains, increasing attention is being paid to the Middle Corridor. In your view, how successfully has Azerbaijan transformed itself from a transit territory into a key strategic player in Eurasian connectivity?

— The Middle Corridor is, to a large extent, more a matter of political rhetoric than economic reality. There is still no evidence that China and Europe will begin using this route instead of maritime routes for trade. There are infrastructural and political constraints preventing the Middle Corridor from realizing its full potential.

— Today Baku is actively developing relations with Turkey, the European Union, Central Asian countries, Russia, and China. Is Azerbaijan becoming an example of a state pursuing a multivector foreign policy amid the new global turbulence?

— Yes, Azerbaijan is a good example of multivectorism. And there is nothing particularly new about this. Building partnerships with various external actors — and at times playing on contradictions between them — is the best way to preserve autonomy and ensure domestic stability. The only thing that has changed is that the global environment has become more competitive and fragmented. However, this is not new for the South Caucasus: the region has existed under similar conditions since the 1990s, even when Western and U.S. influence was at its peak.

— Following the energy crisis in Europe, cooperation between Azerbaijan and the EU has intensified significantly. How do you assess the long-term prospects of this partnership? Will it remain limited exclusively to energy, or could it evolve into a broader geopolitical rapprochement?

— The partnership with the EU has good prospects. However, it remains unclear whether Azerbaijan has sufficient capacity to increase natural gas production in order to meet additional demand. A peace agreement with Armenia would deepen relations with the EU.

— Today the countries of Central Asia are interacting ever more actively with Azerbaijan. Can we speak of the emergence of a new political and economic space stretching from the Caspian to Europe?

— In the case of Central Asia, one can speak of aspirations toward deeper integration. However, that point is still far away, and China will likely remain ahead of the EU as the primary vector of economic cooperation, trade, and investment.

— Azerbaijan is increasingly becoming a venue for international political and economic forums. In your opinion, to what extent is Baku strengthening its position as a diplomatic and intellectual center of the region?

— Azerbaijan possesses considerable potential thanks to its resources and the partnerships it has built since gaining independence. However, what is lacking is a comprehensive peace with Armenia — this is a necessary condition (sine qua non) for Baku to play a leading role beyond the South Caucasus.

— In your opinion, what major challenges will define the future of the South Caucasus over the next 5–10 years: geopolitical competition, transport routes, energy, the climate agenda, or security issues?

— In my view, the main challenges remain the same: persistent regional conflicts, state capture and corruption, as well as interference by external powers that would prefer the preservation of the status quo.