The normalization of relations between Baku and Moscow following the crisis surrounding the tragic incident involving an Azerbaijani airliner has become an important, though not final, step toward restoring mutual trust. This was stated by political analyst and head of the CASPIA Analytical Center, Orkhan Yolchuyev, in a comment to Minval Politika.

According to him, the very fact that the issue has been resolved can already be viewed as a positive signal. “The settlement of the matters related to the tragedy involving the Azerbaijani airliner is, of course, a positive development in bilateral relations,” he noted.

The expert emphasized that such steps are fully consistent with Baku’s broader foreign policy strategy, which prioritizes maintaining stable, constructive, and strong relations with neighboring countries. This, in turn, contributes to the formation of a sustainable ecosystem of regional cooperation in the South Caucasus.

He recalled that a similar approach had been applied even in relations with Armenia: “Even with a country that occupied our territories for nearly 30 years, it was Azerbaijan that initiated the peace process and proposed peace following its victory in Karabakh.”

Addressing the Russian vector, Yolchuyev underlined its particular importance. “Relations with Russia carry significant weight, especially given the deep human and economic ties. A considerable part of Russia’s southern regions is economically interconnected with Azerbaijan,” he stated.

In his view, the resolution of the crisis was not coincidental and coincided with important bilateral engagements. “The issue was settled on the eve of the intergovernmental commission meeting held in Zangilan, which also carries symbolic importance for the liberated territories,” he added.

The analyst suggested viewing Baku–Moscow relations through the lens of two parallel tracks. “There is an economic track and a political one. After the airliner tragedy, this distinction became particularly evident,” he explained.

He stressed the resilience of economic cooperation: “Despite the tensions, economic interaction did not stop for a single day. On the contrary, over the past two years, ties have only strengthened.”

To support this, he cited specific figures: “Trade turnover has reached record levels—approximately $4.9 billion. Russian investments in Azerbaijan exceed $10 billion, while Azerbaijani investments in Russia amount to over $1.2 billion.”

At the same time, he noted that political dialogue had slowed down, largely due to a wave of negative information noise.

Nevertheless, Yolchuyev emphasized that the outcome of the crisis demonstrated the ability of both sides to reach agreements. “As a result of the crisis, Azerbaijan’s demands were met—this includes compensation and acknowledgment of responsibility. Ultimately, Russia demonstrated political will and resolved the issue, although this could have been done more swiftly,” he said.

He also highlighted the diplomatic nature of the resolution: “Azerbaijan allowed Russia to save face. The issue was resolved in a pragmatic and diplomatic manner, rather than in the way it was portrayed in the information space.”

At the same time, he pointed out that economic interdependence remains a key factor. “Amid the restructuring of global logistics chains, it is critically important for Russia to maintain stable and predictable relations with Azerbaijan,” he noted.

Particular emphasis was placed on the transport dimension. “The North–South corridor, especially its western route through Azerbaijan, is a strategic artery linking northwestern Russia with Iranian ports and further with the markets of the Global South,” he explained.

According to the analyst, this route is nearly twice as short as the path through the Suez Canal and is already used for transporting tens of millions of tons of cargo. Azerbaijan remains a key link, as the most efficient segment passes through its territory due to its developed infrastructure and high transit capacity.

Yolchuyev also drew attention to the broader geo-economic picture. “The southern direction is becoming a priority for Russia—Iran, Pakistan, India, Southeast Asia, and even East Africa,” he stated.

In this context, Baku’s role continues to grow. “For connectivity with these regions, with which Russia continues to actively engage, Azerbaijan today is a key country,” he emphasized.

The expert also noted the importance of political leadership. “Personal contacts between the leaders played a crucial role. It was the political will at the highest level that allowed the process to reach a resolution,” he said.

In conclusion, Yolchuyev identified a key indicator of further de-escalation. In his view, the first signal will be a reduction in negative rhetoric within the Russian information space. “Over the past two years, the tone has been excessively harsh, and it needed to change.”

According to him, the future trajectory of relations will depend on whether the parties are able to translate the achieved agreements into sustainable political trust.