The South Caucasus is currently undergoing one of the most sensitive and, at the same time, transformative periods in its modern history. A region that until recently was associated primarily with conflict-driven agendas, frozen disputes, and a high degree of dependence on external centers of power is gradually entering a phase of rethinking its own architecture of security and development.
Against this backdrop, the growing role of Azerbaijan and Turkey as two interconnected strategic actors has become particularly evident. Their partnership is increasingly moving beyond the framework of bilateral relations, acquiring a systemic character and beginning to influence not only the regional balance of power, but also the formation of new logistical, energy, and political contours across Eurasia.
At the same time, the very logic of regional dynamics is changing: external mediation is gradually giving way to a model of greater “regional ownership,” in which key decisions are increasingly shaped within the South Caucasus. In these circumstances, issues such as peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations, and the development of transport corridors are no longer isolated tracks, but rather elements of a single geopolitical framework.
In an interview with CASPIA, these issues were discussed by Sinan Ülgen - a Turkish expert in international relations, economist, political analyst, Managing Partner of the analytical center EDAM (Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies) in Istanbul, and an associate expert and affiliated researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
- Today, Azerbaijan and Turkey demonstrate an unprecedented level of strategic partnership. How do you assess the impact of this alliance on the balance of power in the South Caucasus?
- The South Caucasus is gradually ceasing to be a region defined by protracted conflicts and the intervention of external powers. The old model is being replaced by a new reality in which regional alliances and indigenous mechanisms of cooperation are beginning to play the decisive role. It is precisely in this context that the strategic partnership between Azerbaijan and Turkey acquires particular significance.
First and foremost, this concerns the emergence of a principle of “regional ownership.” Baku and Ankara are increasingly demonstrating that the states of the region are capable of taking part in solving their own problems without relying exclusively on mediation by major world powers.
This is especially evident in the Azerbaijani-Armenian dialogue. Direct negotiations between Baku and Yerevan reflect the sides’ willingness to seek solutions without constant external dictates. At the same time, Turkey’s support strengthens Azerbaijan’s diplomatic position and allows Baku to promote its vision of long-term peace with greater confidence.
Equally important remains the Turkish-Armenian track. The potential normalization of relations between Ankara and Yerevan could significantly transform the regional atmosphere, create new opportunities for economic integration, and reduce the influence of historical grievances that for many years hindered the development of the South Caucasus.
At the same time, the strengthening of the Baku–Ankara axis is changing the approach of external actors toward the region. Russia, which has traditionally been regarded as the main center of influence in the Caucasus, is now facing a more independent and self-confident regional alliance capable of limiting the possibilities for Moscow’s unilateral influence.
The European Union, despite maintaining an important role in the region’s economy and energy sector, is also compelled to take into account the emergence of a more consolidated regional position represented by Azerbaijan and Turkey, both of which possess clearly defined strategic interests.
In the long term, the partnership between Baku and Ankara is becoming a major geopolitical factor. Individually, Azerbaijan and Turkey are already influential actors, but together they form a crucial strategic hub controlling energy and transport routes between Asia and Europe, including the Middle Corridor.
- How do you assess the prospects for long-term stability between Azerbaijan and Armenia amid the current diplomatic process?
- At present, there are grounds for cautious optimism. Following the Second Karabakh War and Azerbaijan’s restoration of control over the previously occupied territories, the balance of power in the region has shifted significantly in Baku’s favor.
At the same time, Armenia’s current leadership appears to be interested in pursuing a foreign policy course aimed at normalizing relations with Azerbaijan while simultaneously seeking closer integration with Western political and economic structures. From the Armenian perspective, this process is also closely linked to the need to normalize relations with Turkey.
For this reason, the current moment can be regarded as particularly important for building a long-term roadmap for peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia. If this process is successfully brought to completion, it could create an entirely new atmosphere of stability and cooperation in the South Caucasus.
- What role can Azerbaijan and Turkey play in shaping a new logistical architecture for Eurasia?
- Today, Azerbaijan is effectively a key element of Turkey’s Eurasian strategy. The development of transport and logistics projects, including the Middle Corridor, provides both countries with the opportunity to become a vital link connecting Europe and Eurasia.
This is particularly relevant amid ongoing changes in the global economy. European states are actively seeking alternative trade routes and new supply chains in an effort to reduce dependence on the Chinese direction. Under these conditions, the role of Azerbaijan and Turkey as reliable transit partners will only continue to grow.
Moreover, the development of such logistical infrastructure would allow the production capacities of Azerbaijan and Turkey to become more deeply integrated into the global supply chains of European companies.
- To what extent could the opening of transport communications transform the economy of the South Caucasus?
- The opening of transport routes could become one of the key drivers of economic transformation across the entire South Caucasus. Improving regional connectivity has always been a critically important condition for the region’s full integration into the European economic space.
The development of communications infrastructure would reduce transportation costs, enhance the competitiveness of regional economies, and facilitate access for local companies to European markets. This would create entirely new opportunities for trade, investment, and industrial development.
However, realizing such potential will require substantial investment in infrastructure. The European Union will likely have to play an important role in this process, since the scale of the necessary investments will be considerable. Therefore, the countries of the region will need to convince their European partners of the strategic importance of such investments.
- Looking 5 - 10 years ahead, how do you see Azerbaijan’s role in regional and global politics?
- In the coming years, the main question for Azerbaijan will be how the country can use its growing economic resilience and expanding international influence to further strengthen its position.
Against the backdrop of instability and conflicts that continue to affect various parts of the world, Azerbaijan’s importance as a reliable energy partner for Europe will only increase. This gives Baku a significant strategic asset and additional opportunities in foreign policy.
However, the key challenge will be to transform economic achievements into a qualitatively new level of relations with international partners and into sustainable political influence.
In this context, the final normalization of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia could open unprecedented prospects for stability, investment, and long-term economic development for the entire region.