Orkhan Yolchuyev, Director of the CASPIA Analytical Center, appeared on CBC’s Aktualno Segodnya programme, where he commented on the current stage of the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia, as well as the domestic political situation in France and protest activity across several European countries.

Speaking about the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace process, Yolchuyev noted that recent Armenian political discourse shows attempts to reinterpret certain provisions and conditions related to the normalisation process. In his view, the government of Nikol Pashinyan is seeking to demonstrate to its domestic audience that it is capable of shaping the national agenda independently, while at the same time preserving room for manoeuvre in its foreign policy dialogue.

“Domestically, the government is trying to show society that it is preserving its agency, setting the agenda itself and making its own decisions. At the same time, a somewhat different picture may be presented to external audiences. This is why it is important to closely monitor how Armenia’s domestic political discourse will correspond with the agreements already reached,” Yolchuyev said.

Yolchuyev stressed that the issue of a referendum in Armenia is acquiring particular political significance under these circumstances. In his assessment, for Azerbaijan the issue concerns long-term guarantees that the peace process will prevent the re-emergence of future crisis points.

“For Azerbaijan, this is a red line, because Baku is focused not on a temporary arrangement, but on a long-term peace with Armenia and the Armenian people,” the CASPIA Director said.

According to Yolchuyev, the debate surrounding a referendum in Armenia goes beyond a purely legal issue and is closely linked to questions of national identity. Within Armenia’s political landscape, he noted, the discussion is accompanied by a broader debate over who defines the country’s contemporary national priorities and on what basis.

“Today, both the government and the opposition are effectively asking who shapes Armenia’s national agenda and what principles it should be based on,” Yolchuyev said.

The programme also addressed the domestic political situation in France. In recent days, the country has faced large-scale protests, some of which have been accompanied by unrest, clashes and mass arrests. French authorities have strengthened security measures ahead of further demonstrations, while protest activity linked to the cost of living and the state of public services has also been observed in other European countries.

Yolchuyev believes that the developments represent a serious domestic political challenge for the French authorities and may have a long-term impact on perceptions of Emmanuel Macron’s presidency.

“It is clear that the level of protest potential in France is currently very high. Local demonstrations have grown considerably in scale, and in some cases the authorities have faced serious difficulties in maintaining public order,” the CASPIA Director noted.

In his assessment, the significance of the current protests extends beyond individual social demands. The scale of public dissatisfaction points to the accumulation of deeper tensions related to living standards, the effectiveness of state institutions and public trust in the political leadership.

Yolchuyev added that developments in France should also be considered within a broader European context, as social and political dissatisfaction is currently being expressed in several EU member states. In his view, the ability of European governments to respond to such crises will affect not only the domestic stability of individual countries, but also the broader political credibility of European