Escalating tensions in the Middle East over the past week have once again brought the region to the center of international politics. The intensification of the confrontation between Iran, Israel, and the United States has been accompanied by exchanges of missile and drone strikes, as well as a growing risk of the conflict expanding further. This crisis has become particularly sensitive for the states of the Persian Gulf, where strategic facilities and U.S. military bases are located.

Amid the continuing tensions in the region, security measures are being strengthened: a number of countries have reinforced their air defense systems, imposed restrictions on the use of airspace, and taken additional steps to protect critical infrastructure. At the same time, concern is growing about the potential consequences of the conflict for the global economy, as the Middle East remains a key region for global energy supplies and international maritime transport.

The escalation is already affecting transportation and trade routes, as well as energy markets. Any further expansion of the conflict could impact strategically important maritime corridors and increase instability in a region where the interests of the world’s major powers and regional actors intersect.

Under these circumstances, questions about the possible scenarios for further developments and the consequences for Middle Eastern countries are becoming increasingly relevant, particularly for the states of the Persian Gulf that find themselves in close proximity to the epicenter of the growing confrontation.

CASPIA presents an interview with Egyptian international relations expert, Researcher at the Turkish Studies Center based in Egypt Ahmed Abdoh Tarabeik.

- How do you assess the recent Iranian missile and drone attacks on several Gulf Arab states?

- The killing of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution in Iran could further escalate Iranian strikes, as well as actions by Shiite groups in the region targeting American interests in the Middle East.

- How do you interpret Iran’s targeting of U.S. military bases and the bases of its allies in Arab countries?

- Iran seeks to expand the scope of the war to encompass the entire Middle East by attempting to draw Gulf states directly into the conflict. An expansion of the war would increase both human and economic losses. It would also prolong the duration of the conflict, which would not serve the interests of Israel or the United States. Moreover, widening the war would further complicate the situation and lead to the involvement of additional actors, whether alongside Iran - such as the Houthis in Yemen and armed militias in Iraq and Lebanon. There is also the possibility of suicide operations targeting American and Israeli interests in the region, as well as Arab countries hosting U.S. military bases on their territories.

- What do these attacks reveal about Iran’s strategic objectives in the broader Middle East conflict?

-Iran did not initiate this war; rather, it was imposed upon it. Therefore, it does not appear to have clearly defined strategic objectives in this conflict. Israel, backed by the United States, has had strategic objectives for months, centered on toppling the Iranian regime and replacing it with one aligned with their interests. Israel also has long-term strategic ambitions, including the establishment of a so-called “Greater Israel” stretching from the Nile River in Egypt to the Euphrates River in Iraq. Maps allegedly leaked by Israel include Palestinian territories, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, and parts of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq. Accordingly, the Israeli Prime Minister views this war and the removal of the current Iranian regime as part of achieving these strategic ambitions, particularly given the presence of U.S. President Donald Trump, who shares similarly hardline views toward Iran.

- How have the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states responded to being directly targeted, and what are the implications for regional unity?

-The GCC states have not been drawn into direct participation in the war in response to the missile strikes against them, especially as U.S. and Israeli forces are defending them and conducting powerful strikes deep inside Iranian territory. The Gulf states are likely to maintain neutrality and avoid direct involvement, limiting their role to providing logistical support to U.S. forces.

Undoubtedly, although the war is still in its early stages, it has opened the door to significant divisions and disagreements among Middle Eastern countries, particularly given the differing interests and levels of losses incurred by states across the region.

- What risks do the current hostilities pose to civilian populations in Arab countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain?

- Iran maintains that its strikes on Gulf states are directed at U.S. military bases, which it considers to be American territory within those countries, and therefore claims it is not violating their sovereignty. However, despite the stated focus on U.S. military targets, errors are always possible. Missiles or drones may occasionally miss their intended targets and fall in civilian areas, posing serious risks to civilian populations. Consequently, Gulf states have resorted to closing schools and shifting to remote education, as well as shutting down several airports, roads, and airspace.

- How might these developments affect the security situation of Arab countries hosting foreign military forces?

- There is undoubtedly significant concern about the risks facing Arab countries that host U.S. military bases. Within hours of the military escalation, Iran launched a number of missiles and drones toward Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha and Kuwait. In response, Gulf states, without exception, closed many airports, roads, airspace, and maritime routes. Most also shut down schools and transitioned to remote learning, in addition to closing numerous official institutions and activating air - raid sirens whenever missiles or drones were detected.

- Do you expect Arab states to take more active military or diplomatic roles in response to the ongoing Iranian aggression?

- Egypt, Turkey, and several Arab countries have called for a ceasefire and a return to the negotiating table to resolve all differences through diplomatic means. The dangers of war affect all Arab states—whether from a security standpoint, as in the case of the Gulf states, or economically, as losses extend to all Arab countries without exception, albeit to varying degrees. Like any war, this conflict affects major maritime routes, including the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf and the Bab el - Mandeb Strait at the entrance to the Red Sea, with direct implications for maritime transport, particularly oil shipments and global supply chains.

- How are the Iranian attacks and the broader conflict perceived in Arab public opinion and regional media?
- Arab public opinion is divided into two camps. The first - and larger - camp condemns what it views as American-Israeli aggression and expresses strong sympathy for Iran, on the grounds that Iran did not initiate the aggression and that Israel has been the primary adversary of Arab peoples since its establishment in 1948. This perspective recalls Israel’s participation in the 1956 Tripartite Aggression against Egypt alongside Britain and France; the 1967 war against Egypt, Syria, and Jordan, during which it occupied Palestinian territories, Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, and Syria’s Golan Heights; its continued actions against Palestinians; its incursions into Lebanon and Syria; and, most recently, the destruction and loss of life witnessed in Gaza.

The second camp, which is relatively smaller, supports the United States and Israel in their actions against Iran. This camp is more concentrated in some Gulf states and has been influenced by years of media messaging portraying Iran as a threat to Gulf security.

- What are the potential economic and security repercussions for the Gulf region if this escalation continues?

- Significant economic losses have occurred since the very first moments of escalation. These began with the closure of airports in several Arab countries and the diversion of many flights to airports outside the region, as well as rising insurance costs for oil shipments passing through the Gulf. Additionally, food and commodity prices have increased due to higher supply chain insurance and transport costs. A halt in oil exports from Gulf states would constitute the most severe economic consequence, given that their economies rely heavily on oil and gas exports. The negative repercussions will intensify the longer the war persists.

- How can Arab states balance their relations with Western powers and their regional security interests amid this crisis?

- Arab states - particularly the Gulf countries - are among the most affected by this war, even though they are not direct parties to it and did not decide its outbreak or its potential end. Geographically and historically, they are neighboring states to Iran. At the same time, they maintain strategic relations with the United States, which operates military bases in most Gulf countries, including the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait. As a result, Arab states will face difficult positions in balancing their relations with Western powers on the one hand and their ties with Iran on the other, especially if the war continues for an extended period.