Tamilla Mammadova, an analyst at the CASPIA think tank, gave an extensive interview to the Georgian information and analytical portal PUBLICIST.GE, where she commented on key political and geo-economic developments in the South Caucasus, including the restoration of railway connections between Azerbaijan and Georgia, the domestic political situation in Armenia, and the potential implications of the transformation of Armenia’s political system for regional stability.

Mammadova believes that the resumption of railway services between Azerbaijan and Georgia after a six-year interruption carries significance far beyond the restoration of passenger transportation. In her view, it represents the South Caucasus’ reintegration into the network of major Eurasian transport corridors.

According to Mammadova, following the conflict in Ukraine, traditional logistics routes through Russia have faced political and sanctions-related constraints, significantly increasing interest in the Middle Corridor, which connects China, Central Asia, the Caspian region, the South Caucasus, and Europe. In this context, the Baku–Tbilisi connection is emerging as one of the key hubs of Eurasian logistics.
She notes that Azerbaijan is seeking to move beyond its role as a raw-material exporter and establish itself as a fully-fledged logistics center, while the restoration of railway connectivity symbolizes the transformation of the South Caucasus from a region of conflict into a space of transit and cooperation.

The analyst places particular emphasis on the political dimension of the issue. She stresses that in the 21st century, transport infrastructure serves not only as an economic asset but also as a geopolitical instrument. Enhanced transport connectivity between Azerbaijan and Georgia strengthens both countries’ strategic importance in relations with the European Union, China, and Russia. For Azerbaijan, this means consolidating its position as a key transport hub linking Central Asia, Türkiye, and Europe; for Georgia, it reinforces its role as the principal gateway to the Black Sea. According to Mammadova, Baku and Tbilisi are effectively shaping their own axis of stability in the South Caucasus, sending an important signal to international investors.

Commenting on political developments in Armenia, Tamilla Mammadova notes that interest in the country’s ongoing elections is driven not only by domestic political competition but also by efforts to determine the future trajectory of the Armenian state in the aftermath of the events of 2020.

In her assessment, Armenian society continues to experience a profound internal crisis linked to the collapse of the previous regional model. Mammadova argues that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is attempting not merely to implement political reforms but to fundamentally redefine Armenia’s state identity through the concept of the so-called “Real Armenia,” which entails acknowledging new regional realities and opening communication routes.
At the same time, she emphasizes that these changes have provoked considerable resistance among segments of Armenia’s political elite and society, who view such an approach as a departure from the country’s previous national paradigm. In Mammadova’s view, the current developments should be seen not only as a confrontation between the government and the opposition, but also as a deeper struggle over a new model of Armenian statehood in the post-Karabakh era.

She further notes that the key issue today is not merely whether elections meet formal democratic standards, but whether Armenia’s political system is capable of returning to genuine political competition without an atmosphere of internal confrontation and political retribution.

Discussing the possible consequences of a change of power in Armenia, Tamilla Mammadova stresses that for the South Caucasus, the decisive factor is not individual political figures but the fundamental shifts in the regional balance that occurred after the Second Karabakh War.

In her opinion, the region has already entered a new phase of development in which transport corridors, logistics, energy, and geo-economic competition have become the defining factors. Consequently, even a change of government in Yerevan would not be able to restore the pre-2020 status quo, as the very architecture of regional relations has been transformed.

Mammadova also points out that since 2020 Armenia has found itself positioned between several centers of power — Russia, the West, Iran, and regional actors — while simultaneously facing serious challenges to its own political resilience. In her view, the central question today is no longer simply who will govern Armenia, but what development strategy Armenian statehood will choose under these new conditions.

In conclusion, the analyst notes that the South Caucasus is gradually evolving into a space where competition is increasingly shaped through infrastructure and economic projects. In this environment, Armenia’s ability to adapt to the new regional reality will be one of the most important factors in ensuring the long-term stability of the entire region.

For more details, see the full interview: https://publicist.ge/info/4320/?fbclid=IwVERDUASQvlJleHRuA2FlbQIxMABzcnRjBmFwcF9pZAwzNTA2ODU1MzE3MjgAAR4Fogqm59PqO7FhPJYashjAgxFVQ_Sq6cyYSLp4QMTdDRtfAmZROX0qwYqNjQ_aem_WymrtIT9A5frc4BjWdm05w