CASPIA presents an interview with Dr. Liu Chang, Assistant Research Fellow at the Institute of Russian, East European and Central Asian Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, specializing in Eurasian affairs and regional studies.

— In recent years, the South Caucasus has increasingly been viewed not as a periphery, but as part of a new Eurasian architecture. How is Azerbaijan’s role in the region perceived today in Chinese academic and strategic circles?

— In recent years, the South Caucasus has undergone two major transformative shifts. First, with the end of the Karabakh conflict, the region has gained a valuable opportunity for peace and development. Second, the Russia–Ukraine conflict has accelerated changes in the Eurasian geopolitical landscape, gradually increasing the strategic importance of the region. Throughout this process, Azerbaijan has actively contributed to these transformations, consistently strengthening its capacity to shape regional dynamics and gradually evolving from a peripheral area of the Eurasian continent into a key node of Eurasian connectivity.

Today, the country occupies three critically important strategic positions. As the central hub of the Middle Corridor, Azerbaijan serves as one of the principal logistics gateways linking China and Europe under the Belt and Road Initiative. Located at the intersection of the North–South and East–West transport corridors, it provides crucial support for the diversification of energy supply chains. In addition, following the end of the Karabakh conflict, Azerbaijan has emerged as one of the significant architects of the regional order by pursuing a diplomatic strategy based on multilateral balancing.

These developments are creating unprecedented opportunities for the advancement of China–Azerbaijan relations. As bilateral ties have been elevated to the level of a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, cooperation between the two countries in areas such as economic integration, energy security, and transport and logistics connectivity is expected to deepen further.

— Azerbaijan is actively developing the Middle Corridor amid the global transformation of supply chains. In your opinion, how strategically important is this route becoming for China in the context of instability surrounding Russia and the Red Sea?

— China has consistently adhered to the principles of openness, inclusiveness, mutual benefit, and win-win cooperation. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China adopted proposals for the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing that “commitment to open cooperation, mutual benefit, and win-win outcomes is an essential requirement of Chinese modernization.”

In recent years, amid accelerating global transformations unprecedented in the past century, the geopolitical and economic landscape of Eurasia has been gradually reshaped under conditions of instability and turbulence. The overall situation has been characterized by seeking opportunities amid disorder and identifying new prospects within crises.

Against this backdrop, the Middle Corridor is gradually emerging as the key southern route of the China–Europe Railway Express, a major pillar of the westward expansion of the Belt and Road Initiative, an important safeguard for supply chain resilience, and a strategic instrument for opening China’s western regions to the outside world.

China is becoming an increasingly active supporter of the development of the Middle Corridor. In October 2023, Beijing included the Middle Corridor among the “Eight Actions” for high-quality joint construction of the Belt and Road Initiative. In November 2025, China Railway Container Transport Co., Ltd. acquired a stake in the operating company of the Middle Corridor. By obtaining a 25 percent share — equal to the stakes held by partners from Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Georgia — the company became a joint operator of the southern route of the China–Europe Railway Express, marking China’s official integration into the operational structure of the Middle Corridor.

— You have studied transport routes and regional connectivity in Armenia. How do you assess the prospects for opening communications in the South Caucasus after many years of conflict?

— On August 8, 2025, Azerbaijan and Armenia officially signed a peace agreement in Washington, marking the legal conclusion of the long-standing Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Although a ceasefire agreement is not a universal solution to all problems, compared to the “no war, no peace” situation that persisted over the past three decades, it has at least opened a window of opportunity for genuinely advancing transport connectivity in the South Caucasus.

At present, the region is experiencing a historic moment for the development of communications, although the path toward the full implementation of these corridors remains far from simple. There are three major opportunities. First, the signing of the peace agreement has released demand for transport connectivity that had long been constrained by conflict. Second, the strategic importance attached to the Middle Corridor by various actors has accelerated infrastructure investment. Third, the simultaneous involvement of external players — including the United States, the European Union, and China — has created a favorable environment with expanding access to capital.

However, the challenges remain substantial. The continuing escalation of tensions between Iran and Israel creates a high degree of uncertainty for the region. If these projects become deeply entangled in great-power geopolitical competition, both their commercial viability and their original purpose — the promotion of peace — could be jeopardized.

In addition, insufficient infrastructure financing, the complexities of harmonizing cross-border governance standards, and domestic political debates in Armenia regarding the possible transfer of sovereign authority over corridor territories may significantly slow project implementation.

Taken together, it can be said that transport connectivity in the South Caucasus has already moved beyond the purely conceptual stage, although a fully mature corridor system still remains some distance away. The key factor for the future lies not so much in the physical construction of infrastructure as in the ability of all parties to preserve a minimum level of cooperative consensus amid competition, so that the dividends of these corridors shift from a “zero-sum game” logic toward a model of mutually beneficial cooperation.

— How do you assess Azerbaijan’s role in the development of multimodal routes connecting China, Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, and Europe? How interested is China in expanding its economic presence in the South Caucasus through Azerbaijan?

— Leveraging its unique geographical position at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, Azerbaijan has become a key hub of the Middle Corridor — a multimodal transport system linking China with Europe through Central Asia and the Caspian Sea.

China–Azerbaijan relations have developed rapidly in recent years, yielding significant results in practical cooperation. In 2025, the two countries elevated their relations to the level of a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, while China Railway Container Transport Co., Ltd. acquired a stake in the structure managing corridor operations.

Today, the Trans-Caspian freight railway route from Xi’an to Baku enables cargo delivery in as little as 11 days. Furthermore, according to data from the State Customs Committee of Azerbaijan, trade turnover between China and Azerbaijan reached USD 4.87 billion in 2025. China maintained its position as Azerbaijan’s fourth-largest trading partner and the country’s largest source of imports.

Azerbaijan’s status as a strategic hub fully aligns with China’s strategy of diversifying transport and logistics connections, transforming the country into a secure, efficient, and mutually beneficial strategic link within the Eurasian supply chain.

— Some experts believe that the South Caucasus is gradually becoming a space where the interests of China, Russia, Türkiye, the EU, and the United States intersect. How sustainable can such a multi-vector model be?

— As the geopolitical and economic significance of the region continues to grow, major actors — particularly the United States and the European Union — are increasing their involvement in regional processes. At present, the overall situation in the South Caucasus remains manageable. Although its “multi-dimensional” geopolitical model maintains a dynamic balance amid instability, its long-term sustainability remains exposed to risks.

The key question is whether all involved parties will be able to jointly address the following issues:

Boundaries of consensus: Can the states of the region, while advancing key transit projects, simultaneously develop a basic consensus on governance norms and rules, avoiding zero-sum logic?

Regional autonomy: Can the countries of the region effectively coordinate their internal interests and resist external pressures in order to evolve from mere transit corridors into genuinely strategic and autonomous hubs?

Conflict-prevention mechanisms: If clashes of interest lead to friction — for example, regarding the distribution of benefits within the TRIPP corridor framework — will the parties be able to establish effective crisis-management mechanisms to prevent competition from spiraling out of control? Azerbaijan’s pragmatic diplomatic strategy, aimed at balancing competing interests while avoiding excessive dependence on any single power, offers a possible model for such governance.

Evolution of the model: Will the future lead to a higher level of institutionalized cooperation, or, conversely, to intensified competition for spheres of influence?

At present, the “embedded” competition driven by the pressing need to ensure energy security and economic development is likely to persist. However, if the dividends of peace ultimately outweigh the costs of fragmentation, the emergence of certain forms of institutionalized cooperation cannot be ruled out.

Overall, the South Caucasus’ “pluralistic” model contains both opportunities and challenges. It reflects the further dismantling of the geopolitical constraints that shaped the region after the end of the Cold War. Yet the sustainability of this model will depend on whether the parties can move beyond purely transactional diplomacy and identify areas of shared interest within a fragmented and competitive environment.

— Looking ahead 10–15 years, what role do you believe Azerbaijan will play in the Eurasian system of connectivity?

— Over the next 10–15 years, Azerbaijan is likely to complete its historic transition from an “oil state” to a “hyper-connected hub” of the Eurasian continent, elevating its status from a passive transit country to an active architect of the regional order.

In the transport sphere, with the full launch of the Middle Corridor and the North–South Corridor, Azerbaijan will evolve into a multimodal “operating system” linking China, Central Asia, Russia, Türkiye, and Europe.

In the energy sphere, by leveraging the potential of the Southern Gas Corridor, Azerbaijan will continue to play a crucial role in supplying natural gas to Europe. At the same time, by developing wind and solar energy projects in the Caspian region, the country seeks to achieve a “dual energy transition” aimed at large-scale exports of green electricity to Europe.

In the digital sphere, the Trans-Caspian fiber-optic cable project, with a capacity of up to 400 terabits per second, will enable Azerbaijan to become one of the key data transmission channels within the Eurasian “Digital Silk Road.”

At the same time, through regional cooperation platforms, Azerbaijan will play an integrative role in the geopolitics of the South Caucasus. This transformation will allow the country to move from the status of a “small state” compelled to survive amid great-power rivalry to that of a “hub state” deeply embedded in global supply chains and capable of shaping the regional agenda through its own development.

However, the ultimate realization of this transformation will still depend on the deepening of domestic economic reforms and the effective management of external geopolitical risks.