Over the past few years, the South Caucasus has evolved beyond being a region defined solely by security concerns. Today, political influence is increasingly shaped by control over transport corridors, energy flows, and the ability of states to adapt to a rapidly changing international environment. As a result, competition over the region is gradually shifting from the military-political sphere toward the geoeconomic domain.

At the same time, the balance of external influence is undergoing a profound transformation. The weakening of traditional power centers has not diminished international interest in the South Caucasus. On the contrary, the region is emerging as a critical component of the evolving architecture of Eurasian connectivity. While this creates new opportunities for economic development, it also intensifies external pressure and strategic competition.

Against this backdrop, the region’s long-term resilience will depend less on the policies of external powers than on the ability of the South Caucasian states themselves to capitalize on emerging opportunities while maintaining political stability, predictability, and a pragmatic foreign policy.

CASPIA presents an interview with Nikoloz Khatiashvili, a Georgian researcher in international relations and foreign policy, and an expert at the Geocase analytical center, specializing in regional security, the geopolitics of the South Caucasus, and Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic integration.

-Georgia is currently experiencing one of the most challenging political periods in recent years. How do you assess the country's domestic political situation today?

- Georgia is indeed going through a deep and protracted political crisis. Political polarization has reached its highest level, while over the past eighteen months the authorities have adopted a number of decisions that, in my view, have significantly undermined the country's democratic environment.

The West continues to exert various forms of pressure on the Georgian leadership. However, we have yet to see any tangible changes that would genuinely improve the lives of ordinary citizens. At the same time, Georgia is facing serious economic challenges. Rising prices and growing social tensions are inevitably eroding public confidence in the government.

Another significant challenge has been the deterioration of relations with the European Union and the United States, which for many years remained Georgia's key strategic partners.

In my opinion, public support for the ruling Georgian Dream party is currently at one of its lowest levels since it came to power. Nevertheless, the party has managed to retain relatively stable positions, largely due to the weakness of the opposition. At the same time, new political forces are beginning to emerge that could potentially reshape the country's political landscape.

- How realistic are the prospects for restoring relations between Georgia and the United States? Can Tbilisi pursue a more multi-vector foreign policy?

- Today, Georgian-American relations are at a historic low, and this is directly linked to the policies pursued by the current Georgian leadership.

For many years, relations between Tbilisi and Washington were built on mutual trust and shared democratic values. However, that very foundation has been severely damaged in recent years. While the ruling party has sought to restore dialogue with the United States, these efforts have so far produced little meaningful progress.

At the same time, the Georgian authorities still have the opportunity to take concrete steps repeatedly called for by their American partners. These include the release of political prisoners, the repeal of legislation viewed as inconsistent with democratic standards, and a return to the country's democratic trajectory. So far, however, no such decisions have been taken. Even if relations with the United States gradually improve, restoring the previous level of trust will be an extremely difficult task.

As for adopting a multi-vector foreign policy similar to Azerbaijan's, such an approach could theoretically prove effective by allowing Georgia to develop relations with both the West and other centers of power simultaneously. Under the current political circumstances, however, implementing such a strategy appears highly challenging. Cooperation with the West remains Georgia's principal foreign policy priority.

- How has the security architecture in the South Caucasus changed in recent years? What role does Georgia play in the region today?

- Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has significantly altered the balance of power across the wider Black Sea region and has had a profound impact on the South Caucasus.

At the same time, the normalization process between Azerbaijan and Armenia has become one of the most important factors contributing to regional peace and stability. Meanwhile, Georgia's own regional and international role has diminished noticeably. This is largely a consequence of the foreign policy pursued by the current Georgian government.

It is worth recalling that only a few years ago Georgia played an important mediating role in certain aspects of the dialogue between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Today, despite maintaining constructive relations with Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Türkiye, increasing questions are being raised about Georgia's effectiveness as an independent regional actor.

- To what extent could developments surrounding Iran affect the security of the South Caucasus?

- The South Caucasus countries generally maintain balanced and good-neighborly relations with Iran, particularly Georgia. For this reason, I consider it unlikely that developments involving Iran will create serious security threats for the South Caucasus itself.

Moreover, given the current state of relations between Tbilisi and Washington, as well as Georgia's existing contacts with Tehran, it is highly unlikely that Georgia would become an instrument of pressure in the event of further escalation between the United States and Iran.

- There is growing discussion that the South Caucasus is becoming an arena of competition among major powers. To what extent do you agree with this assessment?

- In my view, the South Caucasus has long since become a crossroads of strategic interests for the United States, the European Union, Russia, China, and Iran. We are now witnessing a shift toward what can be described as a "competition of corridors." One manifestation of this trend is the TRIPP initiative, which is being considered a potential alternative to the Middle Corridor.

The region's geopolitical significance continues to grow. However, in the short term, major powers have little interest in destabilizing the South Caucasus or allowing another armed conflict to emerge, as their own economic and strategic interests serve as a powerful deterrent.

Moreover, Russia's war against Ukraine has considerably weakened Moscow's capabilities, making the likelihood of another large-scale Russian military aggression in the South Caucasus in the foreseeable future extremely low.

- In your opinion, to what extent has Russia's influence in the South Caucasus declined? Can we speak of a fundamental shift in the regional balance of power?

- Overall, Russia's influence in the South Caucasus has indeed declined significantly, particularly in Armenia and Azerbaijan, where Moscow no longer enjoys the same degree of political and strategic leverage that it did just a few years ago.

Georgia, however, presents a different picture. The country's foreign policy over recent years has effectively led to partial isolation from the West. At the same time, we have seen a growing number of Russian citizens relocating to Georgia, an increase in Russian-owned businesses, and the emergence of new pro-Russian political forces. In addition, the rhetoric of the Georgian authorities toward Moscow has become noticeably softer.

Therefore, despite Russia's overall weakening position across the region, its influence within Georgia remains considerable.

- How do you assess the current U.S. policy toward the South Caucasus, and to what extent is China's role expanding?

- The United States is gradually adopting a more pragmatic and transactional approach toward the South Caucasus. Washington increasingly views the region through the lens of economic cooperation, infrastructure development, and investment opportunities.

At the same time, China's interest in the region, particularly in Georgia, is becoming increasingly evident. However, Beijing's participation in several strategically important projects remains uncertain. For example, the development of the Anaklia Deep Sea Port, where China had been considered a potential partner, has been postponed indefinitely. Consequently, it is still unclear whether China will ultimately participate in the project.

Overall, the South Caucasus has already become an arena of a new geopolitical competition. Today, the world's major powers are competing for influence, infrastructure, transport corridors, and economic opportunities across the region.

- Armenia continues to strengthen its ties with the West while maintaining relations with Russia. How do you assess Yerevan's current foreign policy course?

- Despite its increasingly pronounced turn toward the West, Armenia continues to maintain working relations with Russia. At the same time, Yerevan has been steadily reducing its dependence on Moscow, including in the areas of security and military-technical cooperation. This shift largely reflects Armenia's repeated experience of Russia proving to be an unreliable ally.

The future of Armenian-Russian relations will largely depend on Armenia's domestic political dynamics and on the strategic direction pursued by the country's leadership.

At the same time, the sustainability of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process will remain one of the key pillars of regional security. Any political developments capable of complicating the normalization process between Baku and Yerevan will inevitably affect the overall stability of the South Caucasus.

- The European Union increasingly views Azerbaijan as an important energy partner. How do you assess Azerbaijan's role in Europe's energy security?

- The European Union now regards Caspian and Central Asian energy resources as one of the key pillars of its energy security, particularly in light of its efforts to reduce dependence on Russian energy supplies.

Azerbaijan has already demonstrated its strategic value as a reliable energy supplier. Moreover, amid continuing instability in the Middle East, the country's importance is likely to grow even further, not only as an exporter of energy resources, but also as a critical transit hub connecting Central Asia with European markets.

- There is growing discussion about the so-called "battle of corridors." How significant is the competition among transport routes passing through the South Caucasus?

- The South Caucasus is indeed emerging as one of the key regions in the global competition over transport and logistics corridors. What we are witnessing is not simply the development of individual infrastructure projects, but the formation of a new model of geoeconomic competition.

At present, two major routes stand out. The first is the Middle Corridor, which is already operational and continues to strengthen its position. The second is the TRIPP initiative, which is viewed as a promising project that could eventually become an important addition to the region's transport architecture.

For now, the Middle Corridor remains the most developed route and has no comparable competitors. It has already demonstrated its strategic value and continues to attract growing international interest thanks to its transit potential.

- So, do you believe that the TRIPP project could eventually become a serious competitor to the Middle Corridor?

- Such a scenario is certainly possible in the long term. As the TRIPP project advances, its strategic importance is likely to increase, making competition between transport routes more pronounced.

However, I do not believe these initiatives should be viewed solely as competing projects. On the contrary, if developed effectively, they have the potential to complement one another.

The existence of multiple transport corridors enhances the resilience of regional logistics, strengthens the reliability of international supply chains, and further reinforces the South Caucasus' strategic role in global trade. Ultimately, it is not one particular corridor that stands to benefit the most, but the region as a whole.

- Looking ahead, how do you see the future of the South Caucasus over the coming years?

- The South Caucasus is undergoing a period of profound geopolitical transformation. International interest in the region continues to grow as it becomes an increasingly important component of the global transport, energy, and economic architecture.

Despite persistent political differences and ongoing security challenges, I believe that the major international actors have a shared interest in preserving regional stability. Their economic and strategic priorities serve as an important factor reducing the likelihood of a large-scale military escalation.

At the same time, the future of the South Caucasus will largely depend on the ability of the countries of the region to pursue pragmatic cooperation, maintain political dialogue, and capitalize on emerging opportunities in trade, energy, and regional connectivity.

If these conditions are met, the South Caucasus has the potential to strengthen its position as one of the key strategic hubs linking Europe and Asia.