In recent months, Ukraine has significantly intensified strikes on facilities belonging to Russia’s fuel and energy sector. Targets have included oil refineries, oil storage facilities, and elements of transportation infrastructure. According to a number of assessments, part of Russia’s refining capacity has been temporarily taken offline, while the consequences of the attacks are being actively discussed both within the expert community and among Russian business circles.

The CASPIA Analytical Center asked Russian economist and co-founder and senior fellow, Center for Analysis and Strategies in Europe, Nicosia, Vladislav Inozemtsev, to assess the economic and political consequences of these strikes for Russia.

How do you assess the effectiveness of Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s fuel and energy infrastructure?

— Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s fuel and energy facilities are extremely effective. Ukrainian drones are hitting oil refineries and oil transportation infrastructure with virtually no misses, and, apparently, Russian air defenses are powerless against them.

Back in the summer of 2025, when such strikes were only beginning, I said that this was the most effective means of warfare available to Ukraine: with minimal costs, it was inflicting enormous economic damage on Russia.

This is even more evident now: according to independent estimates, 25–28% of refinery capacity has been temporarily lost, while the share prices of oil companies simply collapsed at the beginning of this week.

Can we expect such strikes to lead to serious economic problems in Russia?

— In assessing the situation, I would draw attention to two aspects.

On the one hand, Ukraine probably believes that such strikes will paralyze the Russian economy, create fuel shortages for the military, or trigger budget problems due to reduced exports. That will not happen.

Crude oil exports continue without major disruption. Strikes on ports reduce shipments by no more than 10–15%, and even then only temporarily. Gasoline prices have risen sharply, but this will accelerate inflation by only 1–2%, no more.

Any shortages will be compensated for through fuel deliveries from Siberia and Belarus, as well as through reduced consumption caused by higher prices. The military consumes no more than 10% of the gasoline and diesel used in the country, and it will receive fuel supplies as a priority.

In other words, Ukrainian attacks will not cause an economic collapse.

If not economic collapse, then what is the main effect of these strikes?

— On the other hand, such strikes are extremely important because of the overall impression they create among Russians, both through the very fact that the war is reaching Russian territory and through the resulting gasoline shortages, as well as the collapse of the tourist season in Crimea due to severed transport routes and in the Caucasus due to catastrophic oil spills into the sea.

It has always been important for Vladimir Putin to create the impression among the population that the “special military operation” is taking place somewhere far away and does not affect the vast majority of Russians. Hence the absence of mobilizations, the lack of freezes on bank deposits, the continued openness of the borders, and so on.

That impression is now rapidly being destroyed, and this is the main effect of the Ukrainian attacks—far more significant than the economic damage they cause.

What political consequences could this have?

— In addition, it should be kept in mind that so-called elections to the State Duma are scheduled to take place in Russia in three months, and under such circumstances they could have catastrophic results for the authorities.

And we remember that the only protests in 2011 occurred precisely because of blatant electoral fraud.

What conclusion would you draw?

— Thus, a year later, I can repeat that Ukraine has chosen an absolutely correct strategy in its strikes against Russia and should only intensify them in the future, as they inflict very serious economic damage on the Kremlin and even more dangerous damage to its image.